The ＂Last Handshake＂ between Bush and Putin： the strength of the United States and Russia is changing.

　　First, the NATO-Russia Council in Bucharest, then the Russian resort of Sochi. From April 4 to 6, US President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin met three times in three days. As Putin is about to step down as Russian president in May this year, and Bush will bid farewell to the White House in January next year, this "last handshake between the US and Russian presidents" has attracted world attention.

　　The purpose of the three-day meeting between Bush and Putin is to discuss how to break the diplomatic deadlock between the United States and Russia, ease bilateral relations and avoid the occurrence of a "new cold war" before they leave office. At the same time, consolidate their respective political heritages and lay the foundation for the US-Russia relations after their successors took office.

　　There is no substantial breakthrough in the "road map" of Russia-US relations.

　　After the talks, Russian and American leaders issued the Declaration on the Strategic Framework of Russian-American Relations, which mainly included the deployment of missile defense system by the United States in Poland and the Czech Republic, the DPRK nuclear issue, the Iranian nuclear issue, nuclear disarmament negotiations and Russia’s accession to the WTO.

　　The declaration said that the era when Russia and the United States regarded each other as strategic threats has come to an end, and the two sides are willing to abandon the "cold war" thinking and transform Russia-US relations from strategic competition to strategic cooperation to jointly meet global challenges. In the spirit of mutual respect, the two sides will hold dialogues on controversial issues and seek solutions. The declaration is regarded as a road map to improve Russian-American relations in the coming period, which has eased the recent tension between Russia and the United States to a certain extent and can be regarded as the greatest achievement of this talk.

　　However, the two sides have not made any breakthrough on substantive issues. On the anti-missile issue, the United States still insists on deploying missile defense systems in Poland and Czech Republic; On the issue of NATO’s eastward expansion, Croatia and Albania were invited to join NATO. Although Ukraine and Georgia’s plans to join NATO were frustrated, they failed to fundamentally solve the problem of NATO’s eastward expansion, only because Western European leaders first considered their own interests and worried about their relations with Russia, which blocked the process of Ukraine and Georgia’s joining NATO.

　　The circular track of "cooperation-struggle"

　　The "last handshake" between Bush and Putin reflects the historical track of the development and change of Russian-American relations. In the 16 years since the disintegration of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, Russian-American relations have experienced a cycle of cooperation and struggle.

　　In the early days of Russia’s independence, the United States regarded it as a loser of the "Cold War" and thought it had a historical mission to continue to transform Russia and make it join the western camp headed by the United States. Yeltsin’s Russia has also set the goal of integration into the western world, and implemented a comprehensive foreign policy of leaning to the west, hoping to transform Russia with the support of the United States and integrate into the international order led by the United States.

　　In those years, Russian-American relations were upgraded from friendship and partnership to democracy and partnership, and then developed into a mature strategic partnership. Seven western countries, including the United States, have made progress in nuclear disarmament through their aid programs to Russia, and the two sides have also signed the Second Stage Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction. There was a short honeymoon period in US-Russian relations.

　　However, from the beginning of 1994, the United States began to implement the policy of squeezing Russia, promoting NATO’s eastward expansion and implementing the missile defense system plan. Yeltsin also adjusted his foreign strategy and carried out the "all-round partnership strategy". As a result, Russia’s "full swing to the west" has become a policy of "paying equal attention to the East and the West". However, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO in 1997, NATO bombed Yugoslavia in March 1999, and the United States violently attacked Russia’s Chechen policy, which accelerated the end of the "honeymoon" between the United States and Russia and the beginning of the struggle.

　　This is the first cooperation-struggle process.

　　At the beginning of Putin’s administration in 2000, he adopted a pragmatic and compromise policy toward the United States. After the September 11th incident, Putin actively cooperated with the international anti-terrorism actions of the United States, providing intelligence, air corridors and strategic rear areas to the United States. Russia has also cancelled the electronic intelligence facilities in Cuba and the military base in Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam, and has also given a de facto acquiescence to the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the ABM Treaty. In return, the United States provided huge assistance to Russia and established a NATO-Russia cooperation mechanism. In May 2002, when Bush visited Russia, the United States and Russia signed the Moscow Treaty to reduce nuclear warheads, and the media commented that US-Russia relations entered the second honeymoon after the Cold War.

　　However, the good times did not last long. Since the end of 2002, the United States and Russia have had serious differences and blamed each other on a series of issues such as NATO’s eastward expansion, the "color revolution", the Iranian nuclear crisis, Russian-Syrian military cooperation, the Yukos incident, the Beslan incident, the US deployment of anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe, and Kosovo’s independence.

　　Russia feels that the compromise with the United States has not been rewarded, but the United States has pressed Russia step by step. Therefore, in response to NATO’s continued eastward expansion and the United States’ insistence on deploying a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, Russia began to react strongly.

　　On February 10th, 2007, Putin took advantage of the Munich Security Conference in Germany to severely criticize American diplomacy. On July 14th of that year, Putin signed an order to suspend the implementation of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe and its related international agreements.

　　Militarily, Russia has also begun to show "muscle" to the United States and Western forces, test-fire a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that "can penetrate any missile defense system", and resume long-range cruise of strategic bombers and routine ocean voyage of naval aircraft carrier fleet. At the beginning of 2008, the Russian navy and air force held the largest military exercise in the northeast Atlantic since Russia’s independence. On January 19th, Baluyevsky, chief of the general staff of the Russian army, said that in order to safeguard the security of Russia and its allies, Russia would use force when necessary, including the use of pre-emptive measures and nuclear weapons.

　　This is the second cooperation-struggle process.

　　At present, Russian-American relations are still in the stage of struggle, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in the near future, but it is possible to develop in the direction of "selective cooperation."

　　Examining Russia in Competition and Cooperation

　　The historical changes in the development of US-Russian relations are rooted in the contradictions and commonalities of national interests.

　　In the early days of Russia’s independence, the transformation of ideology and social system became the common interests of the United States and Russia, and ensuring Russia’s transition and integration into the international community became the common goal of Russia and the United States, so the US-Russia relationship appeared a short "honeymoon" period.

　　However, with the digestion of the end of the "Cold War", the United States began to re-examine its policy toward Russia.

　　On the one hand, judging from the national interests and global strategy of the United States, the original historical grievances between the two sides, Russia’s unique territory, rich resources and the only armament force in the world that can rival the United States today make it impossible for the United States to be completely at ease with Russia.

　　"Even if there is a completely democratic and market-oriented Russia", the national interests of Russia and the United States are also in conflict. Moreover, the political reforms implemented since Putin took office have been labeled as "anti-democracy" and "retrogression" by the United States, and ideological differences have begun to appear.

　　On the other hand, the development of Russia is conducive to the consolidation of the victory of the "Cold War" and the stability and security of Europe, which is in the interest of the United States. In addition, on a series of global issues such as counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, energy and security, the United States must strengthen cooperation with the rising Russia.

　　The strength of the United States and Russia is changing.

　　The change of national strength is also an important reason for the change of Russian-American relations.

　　At the beginning of Russia’s independence, the political situation was chaotic, civil strife continued, and the economy declined year after year. Russia has almost lost all its overseas military bases, and the daily training and armament maintenance of the Russian army has also become a big problem. "Chariots don’t leave the warehouse, planes don’t take off, and ships don’t go out to sea" has become a common phenomenon. The United States is naturally at ease with such Russia, and is even more willing to contribute generously to Russia’s "self-destruction of martial arts"-the destruction of strategic nuclear missiles.

　　Since Putin came to power, with national interests as the core, he has implemented the strategy of strengthening the country and enriching the people, reuniting the national spirit and revitalizing the status of a big country. Since 1999, Russia’s economy has been growing at a high speed for eight consecutive years. In 2007, the GDP increased by 8.1% year-on-year, reaching 1.35 trillion US dollars. Russia has re-entered the top ten economies in the world, and its per capita GDP is close to $9,500. With the development of economy and the increase of financial resources, Russia has accelerated the pace of rearmament and has the capital to make a strong counterattack against the strategic squeeze of the United States.

　　The United States is currently mired in the Iraq war crisis, and the economy is also showing signs of possible recession due to the subprime mortgage crisis. Great changes have taken place in the strength contrast between Russia and the United States. Under this circumstance, the United States has deepened its doubts about Russia, while Russia’s self-confidence in fighting against the United States is increasing.

　　In short, the United States and Russia have complex contradictions, even conflicts in many aspects, and have common interests, so even after Putin and Bush leave office, the policies of their successors will not change significantly. Of course, Russia and the United States will not embark on a new "cold war", but it is possible to seek a more realistic relationship under the background of the international pattern and the European cooperation mechanism. (Kang Shaobang, Executive Deputy Director and Professor, Institute of International Strategy, Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China)

Editor: Li Xingchi